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Will May and June bring snow for the start of 2025 ski season?

With just five weeks until the 2025 ski season kicks off on Saturday, June 7th, we take a closer look at the seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts for May and June to assess the likelihood of natural snow cover for the King's Birthday long weekend.

Image: Chance of rainfall exceeding the monthly median for May (left image) and for June (right image) Source: Bureau of Meteorology 

The rainfall outlook for May indicates an increased likelihood of below average rainfall across the Alpine regions of Victoria and NSW with a strong bias for below-average rainfall across regions inland of the Great Dividing Range. The rainfall outlook for June forecasts a chance of rainfall accumulations still slightly below average across both the Victorian and NSW Alpine regions. 

What does this mean? The increased likelihood of drier conditions through May and potentially continuing into June may suggest the dominance of higher pressure and mostly stable weather conditions across southeast Australia. This could result in a lower frequency of rain (and snow) bearing cold fronts passing over the Alpine regions. Consequently, this may lead to lower natural snow accumulation leading up to the start of the season in June. 

Image: Chance of maximum monthly temperatures exceeding the monthly median for May (left image) and for June (right image) Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

The temperature outlook for both May and June indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures across the Alpine regions of Victoria and NSW and inland regions to the north and northwest. A strong bias for above-average maximum temperatures is indicated across regions inland of the Great Dividing Range for both Victoria and NSW. Warmer temperatures in June suggest a higher likelihood of rain at resort elevations with the passage of early winter cold fronts, with some snow at higher elevations. 
 
This is not a promising outlook for the start of the ski season in terms of natural snowfall. With the higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across the Alpine regions, natural snowfalls at lower resort levels are less likely, with resorts likely to be reliant on snow-making where available. Snowfall is still likely over the higher elevations. 

The bias towards warmer-than-average temperatures may also result in snow melting following any early snowstorms and a delay in establishing a snowpack ahead of further mid-winter storms. However, cooler overnight temperatures under high-pressure systems could bring favourable conditions for snow-making and access to beginners' and some more advanced ski runs. 

The following looks at the relationship between observed average monthly temperatures at Perisher Valley (NSW Snowy Mountains - elevation 1738m) and observed snow depths recorded at two nearby locations, Spencer's Creek (elevation 1830m) and Deep Creek (elevation 1620m). 

A comparison of monthly average temperatures observed at Perisher Valley during February to April in 2024 closely matches the current temperature trend in 2025. Following what was a warmer than average autumn period in 2024, the snow depth observed in June at Deep Creek was minimal until mid-July. At higher elevations (Spencer's Creek), a snow depth of less than 40cm was observed for the start of the season and it wasn't until July when depths increased beyond 100cm.  Could this mean a delayed start to the 2025 ski season?

Alternatively, in 2022, the monthly temperatures for February to April were 3 to 4 degrees colder over the same period in comparison to 2024 (and 2025). What made 2022 remarkable was the exceptional snow season that followed through June to early October, and this was aided with colder temperatures leading up to the start of the 2022 season. Snowfalls in June saw an early start to the ski season and further snowfalls through July, August and September added to the snowpack which exceeded 2 metres at Spencer's Creek in October.  

The 2024 ski season was generally disappointing, with warm temperatures delaying the start of the season opening and then warm temperatures and rainy weather through late August and early September eroding the mid-season snowpack. This resulted in many ski resorts ceasing lift operations around a month earlier than normal.  

The seasonal temperature and rainfall outlooks across southeast Australia for May and June are not encouraging for the start of the 2025 ski season and opening access to all ski trails and terrain. This is where resorts may be reliant on snow-guns and man-made snow before mother nature brings needed snowstorms in July and August. 

There is one thing that is generally accepted with extended forecast outlooks in Alpine regions: weather conditions are fickle, and it takes only one decent winter storm to have ski enthusiasts and resort operators smiling. 

Let's all hope that this winter brings early cold temperatures to the Alpine regions and some winter storms to kick off the season opener on time and maintain fresh snowfalls throughout the remainder of the ski season.