Central West 28-day rainfall forecast
Chance of rainfall somewhere within district
Issued 21 Feb 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 March to 10 March, 12 March to 16 March, and 16 March to 20 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 February to 3 March, 5 March to 9 March, and 9 March to 13 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 March to 8 March, and 8 March to 12 March.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.