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Warnings

Western Australia ‹ back to warnings

  • Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 08 Feb 2025

    Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
    Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1855 UTC 07/02/2025
    Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
    Identifier: 14U
    Data At: 1800 UTC
    Latitude: 16.0S
    Longitude: 97.0E
    Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
    Movement Towards: west (268 deg)
    Speed of Movement: 12 knots (21 km/h)
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
    Central Pressure: 991 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
    Radius of 64-knot winds: 
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
    
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    +06:  08/0000: 16.0S 96.0E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  992
    +12:  08/0600: 16.1S 95.1E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  989
    +18:  08/1200: 16.0S 94.4E:     060 (115):  045  (085):  989
    +24:  08/1800: 15.9S 93.7E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  985
    +36:  09/0600: 15.2S 92.7E:     055 (100):  060  (110):  978
    +48:  09/1800: 14.7S 92.4E:     060 (115):  065  (120):  973
    +60:  10/0600: 14.5S 92.3E:     075 (135):  070  (130):  967
    +72:  10/1800: 14.6S 92.0E:     085 (155):  070  (130):  968
    +96:  11/1800: 15.9S 90.4E:     135 (250):  065  (120):  973
    +120: 12/1800: 18.7S 87.8E:     195 (365):  065  (120):  971
    
    REMARKS:
    SAR pass confirms TC intensity and SATCON suggests weakening trend may have ceased. Taliah was located using animated IR satellite imagery and track persistence with low confidence. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pass at 1152 UTC and SSMIS microwave pass at 1200 UTC supported centre location. Intensity: 40kn biased to subjective Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.0 based upon DT = 3.0 with centre position at edge of dense overcast region. MET = 3.0 based on 24 hour S trend, PAT = 2.5. Objective intensity aids ADT 51kn, AiDT 39kn, D-PRINT 51kn, SATCON 52kn (all 1 min). SAR pass suggests 40-45 knots with strongest winds in NW quadrant. Taliah is currently being steered to the west by a strong ridge and associated mid-level anticyclone to the south. A new mid-level anticyclone builds to the south-southwest over the weekend and Taliah is forecast to start tracking towards the northwest during Sunday before slowing down on Monday. Taliah is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) on Tuesday or Wednesday as Taliah starts tracking towards the southwest ahead of an upper trough. CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates moderate (15 to 20 kn) easterly shear over the circulation. However, tropical moisture and warm SSTs (28C) have allowed Taliah to maintain tropical cyclone intensity despite the wind shear. Model guidance indicates that wind shear should continue to decrease and the environment becomes more favourable for development later today. The current forecast has Taliah persisting as a category 1 through until later today when it may re-intensify to category 2, and then category 3 later on Sunday.
    
    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    ==
    The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0130 UTC.