Rainfall difficult to predict in coming months

Ben Domensino, 2 April 2019

Australia's latest seasonal rainfall outlook leaves a lot to the imagination, but there's a good reason for even odds during the months ahead.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Nino or La Nina are occuring.

However, the Bureau of Meteorology predict that there is a 70 percent chance of El Nino developing later this year.

While this probability is quite high, it's worth pointing out that forecasting El Nino is notoriously difficult at this time of year.

If El Nino does develop during the coming months, it would increase the chance of below average rain in eastern Australia.

On the other side of the country, the Indian Ocean Dipole is also in a neutral phase and isn't expected to influence Australia's weather during the next few months.

So, with Australia is moving into the middle of autumn without any strong influence from these two climate drivers, it's difficult to predict what type of weather will occur around the country during the next few months.

This has been reflected in the Bureau‘s latest seasonal outlook, which shows no strong indication of wetter or drier weather around Australia between April and June.

However, the outlook does suggest that temperatures are likely to be warmer than usual across the country when averaged over the next three months.