28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Southwest Rain Forecast
Southwest 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 2324Low25Med26Hig27Med28Hig29Low30Oct 12Low34Low567Med8910Med11Med12Med13Med14Low15Med16Low17Low18Low19Low2021LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 23 Sep 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
