28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Southern Coastal Rain Forecast
Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 5Hig6Med789Hig10Med11Low12Low13Low14Med15Hig1617Med18Hig19Low20Med21Med22Med23Med24Med25Low26Med27Med28Med29Med30Med31LowAug 1Med2MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 5 Jul 2022The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 July to 30 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 7 August to 11 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
