28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Southern Coastal Rain Forecast
Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 15Low1617181920Med212223242526Low27Med282930LowMay 12Med3Med45Low67Low8Low9Low10Low11Med12Low13MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 14 Apr 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 April to 23 April, 13 May to 17 May, and 17 May to 21 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 April to 23 April, 2 May to 6 May, and 14 May to 18 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
