28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Southern Coastal Rain Forecast
Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 11Hig12Med13Hig1415Hig16Hig17Hig18Low19Med20Med21Hig22Low23Low24Low25Low2627Low28Low29Med30Med31LowSep 123Low4Low5Low6Low78LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 11 Aug 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 10 September to 14 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 August to 28 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
