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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Perth Rain Forecast


    Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    31
    Apr 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    4
    5
    Low
    6
    Low
    7
    Med
    8
    Low
    9
    10
    Hig
    11
    Med
    12
    Low
    13
    Med
    14
    Low
    15
    Med
    16
    Med
    17
    Low
    18
    Med
    19
    Med
    20
    Med
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    Low
    28
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 30 Mar 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 19 April to 23 April, and 3 May to 7 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April, and 29 April to 3 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 2 May to 6 May.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.