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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Perth Rain Forecast


    Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    15
    16
    17
    Hig
    18
    Med
    19
    20
    21
    Low
    22
    23
    Low
    24
    Med
    25
    Low
    26
    Low
    27
    28
    Low
    29
    Low
    30
    Low
    31
    Low
    Jun 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    Med
    4
    Low
    5
    Low
    6
    Low
    7
    Low
    8
    Med
    9
    Low
    10
    Med
    11
    Med
    12
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 15 May 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 May to 2 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 4 June to 8 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 May to 3 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 18 June to 22 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.