28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Goldfields Rain Forecast
Goldfields 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 2627282930Jul 123456789Low10111213Low1415161718Med19202122Low23Low24CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 25 Jun 2022The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 July to 15 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 26 July to 30 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 June to 4 July, 5 July to 9 July, and 10 July to 14 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 July to 18 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 27 July to 31 July.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
