You do not have a default location set
To set your location please use the search box to find your location and then click "set as my default location" on the local weather page.

28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Gascoyne Rain Forecast


    Gascoyne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    5
    Low
    6
    Low
    7
    8
    9
    10
    Med
    11
    Low
    12
    Med
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    Low
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Low
    22
    Low
    23
    Low
    24
    Low
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    Low
    30
    Med
    May 1
    Low
    2
    3
    4
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 4 Apr 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 April to 14 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 5 May to 9 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 April to 20 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 April to 15 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 5 May to 9 May.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.