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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Central Wheatbelt Rain Forecast


    Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    25
    26
    27
    Low
    28
    29
    30
    Low
    31
    Med
    Nov 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    4
    5
    Low
    6
    7
    Low
    8
    Med
    9
    Med
    10
    11
    Low
    12
    13
    14
    Med
    15
    Med
    16
    Low
    17
    Low
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 25 Oct 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 November to 13 November, 19 November to 23 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November, and 14 November to 18 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 November to 13 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 26 November to 30 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.