28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Central Wheatbelt Rain Forecast
Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat252627Low282930Low31MedNov 1Low2Low345Low67Low8Med9Med1011Low121314Med15Med16Low17Low1819202122MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 25 Oct 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 November to 13 November, 19 November to 23 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November, and 14 November to 18 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 November to 13 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 26 November to 30 November.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.