28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Central West Rain Forecast
Central West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat26Hig27Med28Med29Hig30Hig31HigAug 1Low2345Low67Med89Low10Low11Low12Med13Hig141516Low1718Low192021Low22Low23MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 26 Jul 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 August to 5 August, 7 August to 11 August, and 12 August to 16 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 August to 5 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 25 August to 29 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 August to 5 August, 7 August to 11 August, and 15 August to 19 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.