28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Wimmera Rain Forecast
Wimmera 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4Med5Hig6Low7891011Low12Med13Med14Hig15Low16Low17Low18Low19Med20Low212223Low2425Med26Med27Low2829Low30LowMay 1Low23CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 3 Apr 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 28 April to 2 May, and 7 May to 11 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 April to 12 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 22 April to 26 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 26 April to 30 April.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.