28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Wimmera Rain Forecast
Wimmera 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 20Hig21Low22Low23Low24Low25Low2627Low28Hig29Med30LowOct 12Low3Med4Med5Med67Low8Low9Low10Low11Low12Low13Hig14Hig15Med16Med17Med18CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 20 Sep 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 October to 11 October, and 23 October to 27 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
