28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Wimmera Rain Forecast
Wimmera 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 11Hig12Hig13Med14Hig15Med16Low17Hig18Med19Med2021Med22Med23Med2425Med26Low27Low28Low29Low30Med31HigSep 1Med2Med34Low5Low67Low8CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 10 Aug 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 13 September to 17 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 24 August to 28 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
