28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Northeast Rain Forecast
Northeast 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 161718192021222324252627Low282930Low31LowFeb 1Low2Low3Med4Med56789Low1011Low1213CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 16 Jan 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 January to 31 January, 7 February to 11 February, and 19 February to 23 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 February to 5 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
