28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Northeast Rain Forecast
Northeast 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT78Low9Low10Med11121314Med15Med16Hig17Hig18Med19Low20Low21Low22Med23Low24Low25Low26Low27Med28Hig29Hig30HigMay 1Low2Low34Low5Low6MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 7 Apr 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 26 April to 30 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 27 April to 1 May, and 4 May to 8 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
