28 Day Rainfall Forecast
-
Northeast Rain Forecast
Northeast 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 11Med12Med13Low141516171819Med20Low21Low22Med23Low24Med25Med26Low27Med28Med29Med3031MedAug 1Hig2Low3Med4Low5Med6Med7Med8LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 11 Jul 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 August to 5 August, 7 August to 11 August, and 14 August to 18 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 July to 13 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 July to 30 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 12 August to 16 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
