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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    3
    Hig
    4
    Hig
    5
    Med
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    Low
    11
    Med
    12
    Med
    13
    Med
    14
    15
    Med
    16
    Hig
    17
    Med
    18
    Med
    19
    Low
    20
    Med
    21
    Med
    22
    Hig
    23
    Hig
    24
    Med
    25
    Med
    26
    Med
    27
    Med
    28
    Med
    29
    Hig
    30
    Med
    31
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 3 Aug 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 August to 25 August, 25 August to 29 August, and 31 August to 4 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 August to 12 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 22 August to 26 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 20 August to 24 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.