28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat22Hig23Hig24Med25262728Hig29Med30Hig31MedNov 123Low4Med56Low7Med8Low9Low10Med11Med12Low13Low14Med15Med16Low17Low18Med19MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 22 Oct 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 1 November to 5 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 November to 8 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 18 November to 22 November.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.