28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat3Hig4Hig5Med678910Low11Med12Med13Med1415Med16Hig17Med18Med19Low20Med21Med22Hig23Hig24Med25Med26Med27Med28Med29Hig30Med31LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 3 Aug 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 August to 25 August, 25 August to 29 August, and 31 August to 4 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 August to 12 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 22 August to 26 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 20 August to 24 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.