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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    12
    Med
    13
    Low
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    Med
    20
    Hig
    21
    Med
    22
    Med
    23
    Hig
    24
    Med
    25
    Low
    26
    27
    Low
    28
    Low
    29
    Med
    30
    Low
    31
    Low
    Aug 1
    Med
    2
    Med
    3
    Hig
    4
    Med
    5
    Med
    6
    Low
    7
    Low
    8
    Med
    9
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 12 Jul 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 14 August to 18 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 13 August to 17 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 14 August to 18 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.