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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    23
    Hig
    24
    Hig
    25
    Hig
    26
    Med
    27
    Low
    28
    29
    Med
    30
    Oct 1
    Hig
    2
    Med
    3
    Hig
    4
    Med
    5
    Med
    6
    Med
    7
    Low
    8
    Low
    9
    Low
    10
    Low
    11
    Med
    12
    Hig
    13
    Low
    14
    Low
    15
    Low
    16
    Med
    17
    Hig
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    21
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 23 Sep 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.