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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. East Gippsland Rain Forecast


    East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    29
    30
    Med
    Jul 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    Low
    4
    Hig
    5
    Hig
    6
    Med
    7
    Med
    8
    Med
    9
    Med
    10
    11
    Med
    12
    Med
    13
    Low
    14
    Med
    15
    Low
    16
    Med
    17
    Med
    18
    Med
    19
    Hig
    20
    Hig
    21
    Low
    22
    23
    Low
    24
    Med
    25
    Low
    26
    Low
    27
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 29 Jun 2022

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.