28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Central Rain Forecast
Central 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 2930Med31HigAug 1Low2Med3Hig4Med5Med6Med7Low8Low9Med10Hig11Med12Med13Med14Med15Med16Low17Med18Med19Low20Low21Low2223Hig24Low25Low26CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 28 Jul 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
