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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Central Rain Forecast


    Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    29
    30
    Med
    31
    Hig
    Aug 1
    Low
    2
    Med
    3
    Hig
    4
    Med
    5
    Med
    6
    Med
    7
    Low
    8
    Low
    9
    Med
    10
    Hig
    11
    Med
    12
    Med
    13
    Med
    14
    Med
    15
    Med
    16
    Low
    17
    Med
    18
    Med
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Low
    22
    23
    Hig
    24
    Low
    25
    Low
    26
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 28 Jul 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.