28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Central Rain Forecast
Central 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 8Med9Low10111213Hig14Hig15Med16Med17Low18Low19Low20Low21Low22Low23Med24Hig25Hig26Low2728Low29Low30Low31LowApr 1Low2Low3Low4Low5CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 8 Mar 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
