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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. South East Rain Forecast


    South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    26
    27
    Low
    28
    Hig
    29
    Hig
    30
    Med
    31
    Nov 1
    Low
    2
    3
    4
    Low
    5
    6
    7
    Med
    8
    Med
    9
    Hig
    10
    Hig
    11
    Low
    12
    Hig
    13
    Hig
    14
    Med
    15
    Hig
    16
    Med
    17
    Low
    18
    Med
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Med
    22
    Med
    23
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 26 Oct 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 November to 8 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 12 November to 16 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 November to 5 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 21 November to 25 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 November to 9 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 14 November to 18 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.