28 Day Rainfall Forecast
East Coast Rain Forecast
East Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat67Hig8Med9Low101112131415Low16Med17Hig18Med19Med20Hig21Med22Med23Med24Hig25Med26Low27Med28Med29Med30Med31MedJan 1Med2Med3CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 6 Dec 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 28 December to 1 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 30 December to 3 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 25 December to 29 December.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.