28 Day Rainfall Forecast
East Coast Rain Forecast
East Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat23Med24Med25Med26Hig27Low282930Jul 1Low2Hig3Med4Low56Med7Low89Low10Hig11Low12131415Low16Low17Low18Med19Hig20Hig21MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 22 Jun 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 16 July to 20 July, and 20 July to 24 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 June to 4 July, and 7 July to 11 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 June to 4 July, 15 July to 19 July, and 19 July to 23 July.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.