28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Upper South East Rain Forecast
Upper South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat29Low30Low31Nov 12Low3Med4Low5Low678Low9Med1011Med121314151617Low181920Low21Low22Med23Low242526MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 28 Oct 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 November to 11 November, 20 November to 24 November, and 24 November to 28 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 November to 12 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 1 December to 5 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 November to 11 November, 20 November to 24 November, and 24 November to 28 November.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.