28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Mid North Rain Forecast
Mid North 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 14Med15Med1617Med18Med19Med20Hig212223Med24Low25Low2627Med28Low2930Low31MedSep 123Low4Low5Low6Low7Med8Low9Low10Med11LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 14 Aug 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, and 16 September to 20 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 August to 23 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 3 September to 7 September.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
