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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Adelaide Rain Forecast


    Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    9
    Low
    10
    Hig
    11
    Hig
    12
    Low
    13
    14
    15
    16
    Low
    17
    Low
    18
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Med
    22
    Hig
    23
    Med
    24
    25
    26
    Low
    27
    28
    Low
    29
    Med
    30
    Low
    31
    Med
    Aug 1
    Med
    2
    Med
    3
    Med
    4
    Med
    5
    Low
    6
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 8 Jul 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 July to 24 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July, and 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 July to 25 July, 29 July to 2 August, and 2 August to 6 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.