28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Adelaide Rain Forecast
Adelaide 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT3031Apr 1Hig2Low3Hig4Hig5Hig6Med7Low89101112131415Med16Med17Low18Low1920Low21Med22Hig23Med24Low25Low26Low2728CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 30 Mar 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 19 April to 23 April, and 3 May to 7 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April, and 29 April to 3 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 2 May to 6 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
