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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Southeast Coast Rain Forecast


    Southeast Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    6
    Low
    7
    Low
    8
    Med
    9
    Med
    10
    Med
    11
    Med
    12
    Hig
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    21
    22
    Low
    23
    Med
    24
    Low
    25
    Low
    26
    Hig
    27
    Med
    28
    Hig
    29
    Med
    30
    Low
    31
    Med
    Jan 1
    Med
    2
    Med
    3
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 6 Dec 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 28 December to 1 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 30 December to 3 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 25 December to 29 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.