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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Southeast Coast Rain Forecast


    Southeast Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    11
    Low
    12
    Low
    13
    14
    Low
    15
    Hig
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    Med
    26
    Hig
    27
    28
    29
    Low
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    Low
    2
    3
    4
    Low
    5
    Med
    6
    Low
    7
    8
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 10 Aug 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 13 September to 17 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 24 August to 28 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.