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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Nth Cst Tableland Rain Forecast


    Nth Cst Tableland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    21
    22
    Low
    23
    24
    Low
    25
    26
    27
    28
    Low
    29
    Low
    30
    Oct 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    4
    Low
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    Low
    16
    Low
    17
    18
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 21 Sep 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, 11 October to 15 October, and 19 October to 23 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 20 October to 24 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.