28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Nth Cst Tableland Rain Forecast
Nth Cst Tableland 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29LowMar 1Low2Low3Low4Low5Hig6Hig7Low89Med10Med1112Hig13Med14Hig15Hig16Med17Med18Med19Med2021Low2223Low24Low25Low2627Low28Med29LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 29 Feb 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 21 March to 25 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
