28 Day Rainfall Forecast
North Coast & Tableland Rain Forecast
North Coast & Tableland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat27Med28Med29Med30MedDec 1Med2Low3Low4Low5Low67891011Low12Low13Low141516171819202122Med23Low24Med25MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 27 Nov 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 December to 9 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 December to 6 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 28 December to 1 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 December to 9 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.