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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Northwest Rain Forecast


    Northwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Jun 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 17 May 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 May to 27 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 20 June to 24 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 June to 20 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 May to 27 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.