28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Lower Burdekin Rain Forecast
Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat18Hig19Hig20Med21Med22Med23Med2425262728Low293031Feb 12345678Low910Low1112Low13Low14Low15CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 17 Jan 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are two main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 January to 29 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 4 February to 8 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 January to 19 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 January to 29 January, 30 January to 3 February, and 4 February to 8 February.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.