28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Lower Burdekin Rain Forecast
Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat212223Low24Low2526Low27Low282930Jul 1234567891011Low121314151617Low1819CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 21 Jun 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 July to 10 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 16 July to 20 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 July to 6 July, and 21 July to 25 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 July to 5 July, 6 July to 10 July, and 16 July to 20 July.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.