28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Lower Burdekin Rain Forecast
Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29MedMar 1Low2Low3Med4Med5Hig6Hig7Hig89Med10Med11Low12Low13Low14Hig15Low16Low1718Low19Low202122232425262728Low29LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 29 Feb 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 21 March to 25 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
