28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Darling Downs Rain Forecast
Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat6789Low1011Low12Med131415Low161718Low1920212223Hig24Low25Low26Low27Med28Low29Low30Low31Sep 1Low2Low3LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 6 Aug 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 27 August to 31 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 August to 25 August, 25 August to 29 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 27 August to 31 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.