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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Darling Downs Rain Forecast


    Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    4
    Med
    5
    Low
    6
    Low
    7
    Med
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    Low
    15
    Low
    16
    Low
    17
    Low
    18
    19
    20
    Low
    21
    Med
    22
    Med
    23
    Low
    24
    25
    26
    Low
    27
    Low
    28
    29
    Med
    30
    Low
    31
    Low
    Jan 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 4 Dec 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 6 January to 10 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 3 January to 7 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 7 January to 11 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.