28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Brisbane Rain Forecast
Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat4Med5Low6Med7Low8Low9Med10Hig11Hig12Low13Med141516Low17Low18Low19Low20Med21Med22Med23Med24Hig25Med26Low27Med28Low2930Low31Apr 1LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 4 Mar 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.