28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Darwin-Daly Rain Forecast
Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat18Low19Med20Low21Med22Med23Med24Low25Med26Low27Med28Low29Hig30Low31LowNov 12Low3Med4Low56Low7Low8Med9Med10Low11Low12Low13Med14Med15MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 17 Oct 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 7 November to 11 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 October to 26 October, 26 October to 30 October, and 8 November to 12 November.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.