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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Barkly Rain Forecast


    Barkly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    29
    30
    Dec 1
    2
    3
    4
    Low
    5
    6
    7
    Low
    8
    Low
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    Low
    23
    Low
    24
    25
    26
    27
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 28 Nov 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 December to 14 December, 14 December to 18 December, and 20 December to 24 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 December to 7 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 29 December to 2 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 December to 14 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 28 December to 1 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.