28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Barkly Rain Forecast
Barkly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat567891011121314Low1516171819202122232425262728293031Sep 12CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 5 Aug 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 August to 18 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 6 September to 10 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 28 August to 1 September.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.