28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Alice Springs Rain Forecast
Alice Springs 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 1213141516171819202122232425262728293031Jan 123456789CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 11 Dec 2023The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-10, 2023-12-14 and 2023-12-23. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-25, 2023-12-31 and 2024-01-07. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-10, 2023-12-15 and 2023-12-22.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
