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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Upper Western Rain Forecast


    Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    8
    9
    Med
    10
    Med
    11
    Med
    12
    13
    14
    Med
    15
    Low
    16
    17
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Med
    22
    Med
    23
    Low
    24
    Low
    25
    26
    Low
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Apr 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 8 Mar 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.