28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Upper Western Rain Forecast
Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat2930LowJul 123Med4Med5Low678Med9Low1011121314Low15Low16Low17Low1819Low20212223Low24252627LowCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 29 Jun 2022
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.