28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Sydney Rain Forecast
Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat910Med11Low12Hig13Hig14Hig15161718Low19Low20Med21Low22Low23Hig24Med25Med26Low27Low2829Low3031Aug 1Low23456CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 8 Jul 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 July to 24 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July, and 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 July to 25 July, 29 July to 2 August, and 2 August to 6 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.