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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Southern Tablelands Rain Forecast


    Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    27
    28
    Med
    29
    30
    Dec 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    Low
    4
    5
    Low
    6
    Low
    7
    Low
    8
    Low
    9
    Low
    10
    Low
    11
    12
    Low
    13
    14
    Med
    15
    Low
    16
    17
    Low
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    Hig
    22
    Med
    23
    Med
    24
    Low
    25
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 26 Nov 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 December to 9 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 20 December to 24 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 December to 5 December, 8 December to 12 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 December to 9 December, and 19 December to 23 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.