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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Riverina Rain Forecast


    Riverina 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    27
    Low
    28
    Med
    29
    Hig
    30
    Med
    31
    Low
    Feb 1
    Med
    2
    Med
    3
    Low
    4
    Med
    5
    Med
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    Low
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    Low
    23
    Low
    24
    Med
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 26 Jan 2021

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 18 February to 22 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 February to 15 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 22 February to 26 February, and 26 February to 2 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.