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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. NW Slopes Plains Rain Forecast


    NW Slopes Plains 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    Low
    10
    Hig
    11
    Med
    12
    Med
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    Med
    25
    Low
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 4 Jul 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, and 25 July to 29 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 3 August to 7 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.