28 Day Rainfall Forecast
-
Northern Rivers Rain Forecast
Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 18Hig19Med20Hig21Med22Med23Med24Low25Med2627Low28Low29Low30Med31LowNov 123456Low7Low8910Low11Med12Low1314Low15MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 17 Oct 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 7 November to 11 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 October to 26 October, 26 October to 30 October, and 8 November to 12 November.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
