28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Northern Rivers Rain Forecast
Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat25Hig26Med2728Med29Hig30HigJul 1Med2Med345678Med9Low1011Low12Low13Low141516Low17Low1819Low20Low21Med22Med23MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 24 Jun 2021
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 25 July to 29 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 21 July to 25 July.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.