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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Northern Rivers Rain Forecast


    Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    13
    14
    Med
    15
    Hig
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    Low
    24
    25
    Low
    26
    Low
    27
    Low
    28
    Low
    29
    Low
    30
    Low
    31
    Low
    Sep 1
    2
    Low
    3
    Low
    4
    Low
    5
    Med
    6
    Low
    7
    Low
    8
    Low
    9
    10
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 12 Aug 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 2 September to 6 September, and 12 September to 16 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 September to 6 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 9 September to 13 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.