28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Illawarra Rain Forecast
Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat20Med2122Low23Med2425Low262728293031Sep 1234567891011121314151617CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 19 Aug 2022
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 August to 21 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 August to 21 August.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.