28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Illawarra Rain Forecast
Illawarra 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 25262728Med29Med30LowJul 12Med34Low5678Low9Low10Med11Low12Low1314Low15Med1617181920Low21Low22Low23CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 24 Jun 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 25 July to 29 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 21 July to 25 July.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
