28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Illawarra Rain Forecast
Illawarra 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT56Low7Low8Med9Low10111213Low14Med15Low16Low1718Low19Low202122Low23Low24Low25Low26Low27Low28Med2930May 1Low2Low34CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 4 Apr 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 April to 14 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 5 May to 9 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 April to 20 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 April to 15 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 5 May to 9 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
