28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Illawarra Rain Forecast
Illawarra 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 30MedDec 1Med2Low3Med4Med5Med6Med7Med8Low9Low10Med11Hig12Med13Low14Low15Med16Med1718192021Low22Med23Low24Low25Low26Med27Med28CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 30 Nov 2021The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 December to 11 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 31 December to 4 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 December to 14 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 3 January to 7 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 December to 11 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 20 December to 24 December.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
