" Southwest long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Southwest 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1
 
Sep
2
Med
 
3
Low
 
4
Low
 
5
Med
 
6
High
 
7
High
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
High
 
12
High
 
13
High
 
14
Low
 
15
 
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
 
 
19
Low
 
20
Low
 
21
High
 
22
Low
 
23
Low
 
24
Med
 
25
 
 
26
Low
 
27
Low
 
28
 
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Southwest district forecast
Southwest 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 September to 10 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 21 September to 25 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 September to 25 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 21 September to 25 September.

Issued 30 Aug 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.