" Southwest long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Southwest district.

Southwest 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            2
High
 
3
Med
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
Med
 
7
High
 
8
High
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Med
 
12
Low
 
13
Med
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
High
 
20
High
 
21
High
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
Low
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Southwest district forecast
Southwest 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 July to 19 July, 24 July to 28 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 August to 7 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 July to 11 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 30 July to 3 August.

Issued 30 Jun 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.