" Southwest long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Southwest 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
 
 
8
 
 
9
 
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
 
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Med
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
 
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
Low
 
30
 
 
31
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Southwest district forecast
Southwest 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 December to 11 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 28 December to 1 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 31 December to 4 January.

Issued 03 Dec 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.