Weather

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Med
 
30
 
 
1
Low
Jul
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
Med
 
5
High
 
6
Med
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
Med
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
High
 
19
Low
 
20
 
 
21
 
 
22
Low
 
23
Low
 
24
Low
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 25 Jun 2017

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 14 July to 18 July, and 22 July to 26 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 July to 8 July, 13 July to 17 July, and 20 July to 24 July.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.