" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Melbourne district.

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            5
Low
 
6
High
 
7
High
 
8
High
 
9
Med
 
10
 
 
11
Low
 
12
High
 
13
High
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
Low
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
Med
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
1
Low
Oct
2
Low
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 September to 14 September, 20 September to 24 September, and 3 October to 7 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, and 5 October to 9 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 September to 15 September, 20 September to 24 September, and 2 October to 6 October.

Issued 04 Sep 2015

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.