Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast
Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 February to 18 February, 26 February to 1 March, and 12 March to 16 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 February to 29 February, 4 March to 8 March, and 9 March to 13 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 February to 1 March, 1 March to 5 March, and 13 March to 17 March.
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This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.