" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
2
Low
 
3
 
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
 
 
7
Med
 
8
 
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
 
 
16
 
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
Med
 
21
 
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
Med
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 November to 20 November, 21 November to 25 November, and 27 November to 1 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 November to 9 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 21 November to 25 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 November to 21 November, 22 November to 26 November, and 27 November to 1 December.

Issued 31 Oct 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.