" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Melbourne district.

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        29
High
 
30
High
 
1
Med
Oct
2
High
 
3
High
 
4
High
 
5
High
 
6
 
 
7
 
 
8
High
 
9
High
 
10
Low
 
11
High
 
12
Med
 
13
 
 
14
Med
 
15
High
 
16
High
 
17
Med
 
18
Low
 
19
Low
 
20
 
 
21
Med
 
22
 
 
23
Med
 
24
Med
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 30 October to 3 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 October to 12 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 23 October to 27 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 11 October to 15 October.

Issued 27 Sep 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.