" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            1
Med
Aug
2
High
 
3
High
 
4
Med
 
5
High
 
6
High
 
7
High
 
8
Med
 
9
 
 
10
Med
 
11
Med
 
12
High
 
13
Low
 
14
Med
 
15
High
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
Med
 
21
High
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
 
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 August to 25 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 2 September to 6 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 26 August to 30 August.

Issued 30 Jul 2015

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.