" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      26
Med
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
1
Med
Dec
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
High
 
10
Med
 
11
Low
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Med
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
20
Low
 
21
 
 
22
Low
 
23
Low
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 December to 5 December, 8 December to 12 December, and 20 December to 24 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 December to 8 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 22 December to 26 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 December to 6 December, 14 December to 18 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued 24 Nov 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.