Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast
Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 May to 11 May, 15 May to 19 May, and 26 May to 30 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 May to 18 May, 25 May to 29 May, and 1 June to 5 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 May to 11 May, 15 May to 19 May, and 20 May to 24 May.
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This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.