" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        31
High
 
1
High
Aug
2
Med
 
3
 
 
4
Low
 
5
Med
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
Med
 
13
Low
 
14
Med
 
15
High
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
High
 
19
Med
 
20
High
 
21
Med
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
Med
 
25
Med
 
26
High
 
27
Med
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 August to 9 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 July to 31 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 August to 9 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 25 August to 29 August.

Issued 29 Jul 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.