" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Melbourne district.

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      29
Med
 
30
High
 
1
Med
Jul
2
Med
 
3
High
 
4
Med
 
5
Low
 
6
 
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
 
 
11
Low
 
12
Med
 
13
Med
 
14
 
 
15
Med
 
16
High
 
17
High
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
Med
 
23
Low
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
Med
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 8 July to 12 July, and 14 July to 18 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, and 27 July to 31 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 July to 6 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 25 July to 29 July.

Issued 28 Jun 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.