" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Melbourne district.

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    23
High
 
24
 
 
25
Med
 
26
Low
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
 
 
30
Med
 
31
Low
 
1
 
Jan
2
 
 
3
Low
 
4
Low
 
5
Med
 
6
High
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
Low
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 8 January to 12 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 23 January to 27 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 December to 31 December, 8 January to 12 January, and 15 January to 19 January.

Issued 21 Dec 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.