" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
20
Med
 
21
High
 
22
High
 
23
Low
 
24
Med
 
25
High
 
26
Med
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
1
Low
May
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
High
 
7
High
 
8
Low
 
9
 
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Med
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 April to 28 April, 3 May to 7 May, and 22 May to 26 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 May to 16 May, 17 May to 21 May, and 21 May to 25 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 April to 28 April, 16 May to 20 May, and 22 May to 26 May.

Issued 19 Apr 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.