Weather

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        25
Med
 
26
Low
 
27
High
 
28
High
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
31
High
 
1
High
Jun
2
Med
 
3
Low
 
4
Med
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
Low
 
12
Med
 
13
High
 
14
High
 
15
Med
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
Med
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 23 May 2017

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 June to 8 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 26 June to 30 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 June to 18 June, and 26 June to 30 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 1 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.