Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast
Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 August to 5 August, 11 August to 15 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 August to 23 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 July to 1 August, 2 August to 6 August, and 7 August to 11 August.
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This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.