" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Melbourne district.

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            30
 
 
31
High
 
1
High
Sep
2
High
 
3
High
 
4
High
 
5
Low
 
6
Med
 
7
High
 
8
Med
 
9
Med
 
10
High
 
11
Med
 
12
Med
 
13
High
 
14
High
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
High
 
20
Low
 
21
 
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
High
 
26
High
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 September to 9 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 20 September to 24 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 September to 9 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 20 September to 24 September.

Issued 29 Aug 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.