" Melbourne long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
5
High
 
6
High
 
7
Med
 
8
 
 
9
Low
 
10
High
 
11
Med
 
12
Med
 
13
Low
 
14
 
 
15
High
 
16
High
 
17
Med
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
 
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
 
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
 
 
30
 
 
31
 
 
1
 
Aug

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Melbourne district forecast
Melbourne 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, and 14 July to 18 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 July to 13 July, and 13 July to 17 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, and 14 July to 18 July.

Issued 04 Jul 2015

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.