Stormy start to autumn in NSW

Ben Domensino, 28 February 2018

A multi-day thunderstorm outbreak will affect parts of NSW during the opening week of autumn.

While the first two days of March will be dry for most of NSW, a slow-moving low pressure trough will bring a prolonged spell of stormy weather to parts of the state from this weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the northern inland on Saturday and become more widespread across the state's northern, central and eastern districts from Sunday into next week.

At this stage, the most intense and widespread thunderstorms should occur between this Sunday and Tuesday next week. Some computer models suggest rain and storms may continue in parts of NSW into the second half of next week as well.

Rainfall totals from multi-day storm outbreaks like this one are difficult to predict as they depend heavily on the location and intensity of individual storms.

While modern computer models are good at identifying regions where rain and thunderstorms are likely to occur during the week ahead, they aren't powerful enough yet to predict where individual storm cells will form this far ahead of time.

Some places may see more than one severe storm during the week ahead, while other locations could miss out altogether.

Rainfall totals during the next week will be patchy across the state, with the heaviest falls likely to occur in the state's northern, central and eastern district.

Some places will receive weekly totals in excess of 50mm and parts of northeast NSW may pick up 100-200mm by the end of next week.

Be sure to monitor the latest forecasts and thunderstorm warnings from this weekend and throughout next week.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2018