From fires to floods: heavy rain looms for eastern Australia

A multi-day rain event is likely to cause severe thunderstorms and flooding in parts of Queensland and NSW during the next week. After months of fires and years of drought, the impending rain will bring both welcome respite and severe weather to a number of communities in eastern Australia.

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Image: Visible satellite image from 11am AEDT on Wednesday. Cloud can be seen building over Queensland and northern NSW, while smoke remains visible over southern NSW and eastern Victoria. 

A sustained stream of moisture-laden winds feeding into a near-stationary pool of cold upper-level air will result in days of rain and thunderstorms over eastern Australia during the next week.

This will be a complex weather event and forecast models are struggling to predict exactly when, where and how much rain will occur. What we can say at this stage is that many areas from central Queensland down to southern NSW will see useful rain from this system, while a number of cities, towns and farms will experience severe weather on one or more days during the week ahead.

Accumulated rainfall totals during the next eight days (Wednesday to Wednesday) are likely to reach at least 20-50mm for a large swathe of eastern Australia, including some parts of the drought-weary Murray Basin. Closer to the coast, weekly totals will exceed 100mm and could push above 200mm in some areas.

Image: Accumulated rain during the next eight days (Wednesday to Wednesday) according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

The rain amounts that you see in your local forecasts are likely to jump around during the coming week as computer models provide new and more accurate data. The best advice is to check the forecasts regularly and also monitor the latest weather warnings and flood advisories.

While the coming rain will bring some relief to drought and fire-affected areas of eastern and southeastern Australia, it will take months of above average rain to make up for the rainfall deficits that have built up during the last few years. The heavy rain will also come with an increased risk of flash flooding, erosion and landslides in areas recently burnt out by fires.

On Tuesday, there were more than 60 fires still burning in NSW alone, around half of which were uncontained.