Weather

Fewer tropical cyclones, not necessarily weaker

Ben Domensino, 14 October 2019

The Bureau of Meteorology are tipping fewer tropical cyclones than usual during the upcoming Australian cyclone season, which starts next month.

Australia's official tropical cyclone season runs from November to April. During this time, we usually see around 11 to 12 tropical cyclones in our region and about four of these make landfall in Australia.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, there is a 65 percent chance that we will see fewer-than-average tropical cyclones during the 2019/20 season. While this outlook hints at a quieter season than usual, this may not be the case. 

Fewer tropical cyclones doesn't mean that they will be weaker than usual. In fact, there are indications that climate change may cause tropical cyclones to become less frequent but with a greater proportion of high intensity storms, according to the CSIRO and BoM. This is still an active area of research, with a lot of variability from year-to-year.

Regardless of the overall number and individual strength of tropical cyclones this season, it's worth remembering that it only takes one to threaten your life.

Visit http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=dropdown for the latest information on tropical cyclones during the upcoming season.