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Weather News - QLDs Tropical Cyclone/Low updateJames Casey, 9 March 2014
While we now have one Tropical Cyclone Gillian in the Gulf there is more uncertainty than normal regarding the Tropical Low in the Coral Sea.
Tropical Cyclone Gillian became a Category 1 Cyclone on Saturday night as it intensified in the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. At 10am Sunday morning it was tracking south at 14 km/h 200km west of Weipa. It is expected to continue parallel to the west coast of the Peninsula and Gulf Country overnight with the risk that it could intensify into a Category 2 Cyclone on Monday morning.
The coast between Gilbert River to Cape York are currently on cyclone warning, with winds gusting up to 125km/h a risk between Cape York and Pormpurraw into Sunday evening. Falls of over 50mm in 24 hours and swell heights up to 4 metres are also a risk of creating the potential for a large storm surge which could cause significant damage to coastal areas.
Jumping across the Peninsula into the Coral Sea, we are greeted with greater uncertainty than your typical Tropical Low. This Tropical Low has forecasting models second guessing themselves as it moves south-southwest at 9km/h just over 100km off the Townsville Coast, at 2pm on Sunday.
At this stage it looks like it could become a Tropical Cyclone sometime on Monday and start heading away from the coast, although with the level of uncertainty surrounding this system this is subject to change.
The system is looking like it will impact somewhere between Innisfail and St Lawrence with rain over 100mm and wind gusts around 120km/h a risk.
Stay up to date with tropical low and cyclone at http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tropicalcyclone.jsp
© Weatherzone 2014
Weather News - Australia's weather: Cyclone across the north and warm in the southMax Gonzalez, 10 March 2014
A couple of cyclones across the north and yet another hot spell in the south, with not much happening in between.
Across the northern tropics two tropical cyclones developed over the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Tropical Cyclone Hadi off Queensland Central Coast. As per usual, these tropical cyclones have been stubborn and with a mind of their own have been difficult to forecast. At present, TC Hadi should remain on an easterly track taking it away from mainland Australia while TC Hadi is likely to track southwestwards towards the base of the Top End.
However, these cyclones have yet to make a stamp with Weipa only picking up 33mm to 9am this morning and Mackay Airport 69mm in the same period.
Across the southern states, a trough and cold front will be dragging hot northerly winds towards the southern coasts bringing a brief "summer" spell with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 30s in Adelaide before a cooler change tomorrow afternoon. Low-to-mid 30 degrees will also reach Melbourne in strengthening, hot northerly winds ahead of a cooler change on Tuesday evening.
A warming trend will then return to the south from Thursday and peaking on Saturday ahead of yet another cool change. The main difference this time, is that this second cool change is likely to ruin many people?s Sunday, with unseasonal cool temperatures, rain and wind.
Unfortunately those in angst of rainfall will have to continue in waiting as these systems are unlikely to bring any significant rainfall amounts to Victoria and South Australia, with the highest totals likely in eastern Victoria with 25-75mm possible.
© Weatherzone 2014
Weather News - Severe thunderstorms heading to VictoriaRob Sharpe, 10 March 2014
Victoria is likely to experience severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a front and trough sweep across the state.
A weak low pressure trough will move over Victoria today, with the chance of a few afternoon showers and storms, particularly on and south of the ranges. Melbourne will see a few showers this afternoon and possibly a weak thunderstorm. Thankfully these won't disrupt the end of the Moomba festival very much as these will be fairly light.
Tomorrow, however, will not be nearly as sedate as an approaching cold front increases the strength of the trough over Victoria.
The day will heat up quickly under mostly sunny skies before cloud cover increases. Thunderstorms are likely to occur in all Victorian districts. Isolated thunderstorms should develop on the ranges in the middle of the day, before moving quickly in a southeasterly direction with at least one of them likely to move through the Melbourne area. Storms will become more widespread in the afternoon with some storms potentially producing frequent lightning and damaging winds.
In the evening the airmass is likely to become more saturated leading to areas of rain across the state, with some thunder and lightning mixed in. There should still be a few more significant thunderstorm cells bringing the risk of damaging winds and flash flooding.
All of the Melbourne and almost all of Victoria will at least get some rain in the evening or overnight, but rainfall totals should only exceed 15mm with thunderstorms.
From Wednesday to Friday most of Victoria will see quite stable conditions under a high pressure ridge. However on the Grand Prix weekend a strong cold front will surge across the state bringing rain with gusty cold winds, particularly on Sunday.
© Weatherzone 2014