Central West 28-day rainfall forecast
Chance of rainfall somewhere within district
Issued 27 Jan 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 February to 15 February, 20 February to 24 February, and 25 February to 29 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 February to 8 February, and 17 February to 21 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 February to 15 February, 18 February to 22 February, and 25 February to 29 February.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.