Weather

Melbourne 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    15
Low
 
16
High
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
Low
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
Low
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 
30
 
 
31
Med
 
1
Low
Nov
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
 
 
9
Low
 
10
High
 
11
 
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 14 Oct 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, and 3 November to 7 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.