Weather

Upper South East 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          21
 
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
 
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
 
 
1
 
Mar
2
 
 
3
 
 
4
 
 
5
Med
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
Low
 
15
Med
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
   

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 19 Feb 2020

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 February to 2 March, 5 March to 9 March, and 11 March to 15 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 February to 3 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 February to 2 March, 5 March to 9 March, and 11 March to 15 March.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.