Weather

Lower South East 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
Low
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Med
 
30
 
 
1
Low
Dec
2
 
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
 
 
7
 
 
8
Low
 
9
 
 
10
Low
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 12 Nov 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 November to 1 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 November to 23 November, and 15 December to 19 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.