Weather

Nth Cst Tableland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    24
Med
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
 
 
30
 
 
1
 
Oct
2
 
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
 
 
8
 
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
 
 
14
Low
 
15
 
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
Low
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 23 Sep 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 September to 2 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 25 October to 29 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 2 October to 6 October, and 12 October to 16 October.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.