Weather

Northern Rivers 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  27
 
 
28
 
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
31
Low
 
1
 
Feb
2
 
 
3
 
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
 
 
8
High
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
High
 
12
Med
 
13
Med
 
14
Low
 
15
Med
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
Med
 
21
High
 
22
Med
 
23
 
 
           

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 25 Jan 2020

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 February to 5 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 February to 13 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 January to 4 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.