Weather

Central North 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          15
Med
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
 
 
20
Med
 
21
Low
 
22
Med
 
23
High
 
24
Low
 
25
Med
 
26
Med
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
1
High
Dec
2
Low
 
3
 
 
4
Low
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
High
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
   

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 14 Nov 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 November to 25 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 5 December to 9 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 November to 25 November, 25 November to 29 November, and 30 November to 4 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 November to 25 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 5 December to 9 December.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.