Weather

Central North 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    27
Med
 
28
Med
 
29
 
 
30
 
 
31
High
 
1
Med
Sep
2
Med
 
3
High
 
4
High
 
5
High
 
6
High
 
7
Low
 
8
Med
 
9
High
 
10
Med
 
11
Low
 
12
Low
 
13
High
 
14
High
 
15
High
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
High
 
19
Med
 
20
Low
 
21
High
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 25 Aug 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 September to 7 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 22 September to 26 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 August to 4 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 11 September to 15 September.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.